Purpose. To identify development regularities of a small-amplitude disturbance in terms of typical Western Donbas mine fields and to define the most efficient tendencies of its prediction. Methodology. The methods include analysis, systematization, generalization, and statistical processing of geological and geophysical data; probability analysis. Findings. Such parameters of small-amplitude breakings as amplitudes, slope angles, and length of the disturbances have been geometrized within the fields of Stepova and Yuvileina mines of Pershotravenske Mine Office (MO). The abovementioned helped to develop the statistical distribution of the values. Zonality of the small-amplitude disturbances of coal seams has been determined for the fields of the mines. Parameters of the zones are continuous, which made it possible to extrapolate them to the undisturbed shares of the mine fields. Statistical processing of the data, concerning characteristics of small-amplitude disturbances, became a basis for hypothesizing on the theoretical probabilistic distribution of the values, which helped to predict probable amplitude and length of disturbances within the undisturbed shares of the mine fields. Log data of expendable wells were used to support the prediction results. Caliper logging, showing tectonic disturbances, has been defined as the most informative log index in the context of geological conditions of Yuvileina mine. The log data confirm the prediction with the use of the disturbed area extrapolation. Originality. It has been proved that the small-amplitude disturbances within mine fields of Pershotravenske MO form persistent areas demonstrated steadily in the log data. Among other things, logging is the most informative log index demonstrating tectonic disturbances for the geological conditions of Yuvileina mine. Such geometrical parameters of the disturbances as amplitude and length are subject to the exponential rule of the probability distribution, making it possible to predict the most possible values of the amounts where new stopes are planned for operation. The information concerning disturbance parameters of a coal seam helps to predict the complexity of mining of certain of the fields of Pershotravenske MO, efficient prediction of small-amplitude disturbance of coal seams should involve the integration of geological (zone extrapolation) and geophysical (logging) methods. The analysis of log data of exploration wells within the areas where extrapolation recorded the highest probability of the small-amplitude disturbance formation provides the early decisions as for the efficiency of the site mining to develop the required engineering solutions, and to predict the coal grade deterioration.

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