Purpose. To develop an effective model for assessing occupational risk due to rock caving in the country's coal mines. Methodology. A mathematical model based on the maximum-likelihood method is presented, which makes it possible to assess the probability of a rockfall. The use of Bayes theorem for assessing the individual risk of fatal injuries of coal mine workers is justified. The complex method for effective control of mountain pressure is illustrated by application of the developed methodology of computer modeling of geomechanical processes, instrumental and geophysical methods for protection and maintenance of mine workings at development of a coal seam of the Barentsburg field. Findings. The work demonstrates the relationship between the key statistical indicator that affects the accident rate and the value of professional risk. A key statistical indicator, the value of which is determined using the multifunctional systems of safety, is substantiated. Originality. The development efficiency of the multifunctional safety system installation in coal mines to monitor the condition of the rock mass is analyzed. Practical value. The model developed by the authors will make it possible to determine the predicted value of the individual risk of fatal injury to personnel during rock collapse more accurately compared to the existing methods.

 Наукова періодика України 

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