Purpose. To conduct an analysis of funding from state and regional budgets for environmental needs in general and itemized as "waste management", to identify correlations of data and to build on their basis a mathematical apparatus for forecasting the financing of environmental needs in the event of a budget crisis. Methodology. The results of the study were obtained using general and special methods of cognition. Methods of comparative analysis, content analysis and logical generalization were used to analyze the financing of environmental needs in general as well as waste management, in particular. Methods of quantitative and qualitative comparison were used to detect data correlation and isolation from random effects on the resulting function of non-random components. Methods of scientific abstraction and mathematical formalization were used to form a mathematical apparatus for forecasting the financing of environmental needs in the event of a budget crisis. Findings. It is proposed to introduce a strategic systems approach to address pressing issues of environmental protection and industrial waste management in the face of a shortage of financial resources both at the state level and at the regional level. The mathematical apparatus has been formed for this purpose. The increasing relevance of the forecast was achieved by introducing an original methodology. Trends and features of budget financing of ecological programs at the state and regional levels are revealed. With a chronic lack of financial resources, there is a tendency of a steady increase in current costs of waste management. Peculiarities of financing ecological needs from regional budgets are studied. It is stated that regional budgets are affected not only by the risks inherent in national funding, but also by their own sets of risks. Originality. The presence of correlated components in white noise of ARMA-models increased the relevance of forecasts of financing environmental programs in the crisis. The practical reliability of the correlation between some components of white noise and the integrated indicator of the level of economic security is established. It was found that the financing of environmental programs from regional budgets is characterized by more uneven changes than in the case of state funding. Practical value. Forecasts for the volume of industrial waste for disposal in specially designated places and the volume of capital investment and current costs of waste management have been developed. The possibilities of the mathematical model for the formation of forecasts of future periods are tested. Forecasts for the following years and approximations of previous periods are presented in a convenient analytical form to be used by specialists. Forecasting budget revenues for environmental needs allows planning a phased solution to environmental problems and attracting the necessary external financial resources, increases the ability of public control of financial flows and access to the planned indicators of each of the environmental investment objects. In a broader sense, it provides a tool for shaping the sphere of environmental protection as a single system.

 Наукова періодика України 

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• Дацій Надія Василівна (економічні науки)

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